The effects of the El Niño climate phenomenon are not yet known with certainty, but experts anticipate a difficult season for Guanacaste, with rainfall expected to drop by as much as 50%.
Monitoring data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) project that ocean temperatures will rise by 2.0 degrees, so the El Niño is expected to be either strong or very strong.
The actual name of this phenomenon is the Southern Oscillation (ENOS), and this is not the first time it has occurred; in fact, it has been happening for millions of years. It acts as a massive natural release valve for the planet, dissipating heat accumulated in the ocean. This release occurs through cycles of winds and currents in the Pacific Ocean.
From time to time, at irregular intervals, the west-to-east wind current in the Pacific weakens, and the surface water temperature rises along the equatorial belt by 0.5 to 2 or 3 degrees. Its strength and impact will depend on this.
A blow to the local economy
In the case of Guanacaste, and in most of Central America, El Niño extends the dry season and the heat becomes more intense than usual, according to the World Meteorological Organization.
Ricardo Orozco Montoya, a climatologist at the School of Geographic Sciences at the National University, noted that the impacts on the Guanacaste region can be divided into four main areas, which directly affect the economy and people’s quality of life.
1.- The first direct impact is the availability of water to meet the population’s most basic needs: drinking, bathing, washing clothes, cooking, cleaning, and other activities. If there is less rainfall, less water is stored in the ground and in dams and lakes.
As this resource becomes scarce, authorities are forced to ration its use to ensure it lasts until the next rainy season.
2.- Guanacaste’s economy depends, to a large extent, on the agricultural and livestock sector. With little water, the pastures that feed livestock do not regenerate, and feeding the animals becomes more expensive—in addition to the water the animals themselves need to drink. As for crops, without rain and in extreme heat, harvests are unlikely to be productive.
3.- Rising prices: With limited food production from the countryside, prices naturally tend to rise. This affects not only producers but also all end consumers of meat, milk, vegetables, and grains.
4.- The energy sector: Although it rarely receives attention when discussing drought, explains Orozco Montoya, electricity production is one of the sectors most affected by a lack of rain. In 2025, 73% of the national demand for electricity was met by hydroelectric plants, according to data from the Costa Rican Electricity Institute. For these plants to operate, a constant flow of large amounts of water is required.
In addition to these four main areas, Orozco highlights the health factor. With higher temperatures and conditions that allow water to stagnate rather than circulate, the population becomes more vulnerable to diseases such as dengue, to cite one example.
Although El Niño has had a strong impact on Guanacaste in previous years—such as in 2016—the climatologist notes that 10 years later, the planet is warmer due to climate change, and that has a significant impact: for example, the heat index is higher, surface freshwater evaporates more quickly, and there is greater coral mortality due to ocean temperatures.
This doesn’t mean that there will now be strong or very strong El Niño events solely because of climate change—we have to keep these things separate—but what is true is that we live on a warmer planet, and that can indeed worsen the situation because it exacerbates or amplifies the impacts,” he emphasizes.
Stay informed and take precautions
When hearing about these types of weather events, the public also tends to react with disbelief, says Ricardo Orozco.
Sometimes people are quick to think that it rained yesterday and it rained today, but they don’t remember that maybe it didn’t rain two or three days ago. Just because it rains for 20 minutes one afternoon doesn’t make up for the lack of rain over the past month,” he adds.
On a collective level, he notes, it’s necessary to conserve water and energy as much as possible. And that includes not only the residential sector but also the productive sectors. “Without alarming the public, we need to raise awareness of what could happen.”
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