After an early start in May and above average rainfall in June and July, we enjoyed a break in the rains at the end of July and beginning of August, but that's all it was — a break. Now the onslaught of rainstorms (including thunder to make you jump out of your seat) is back and predicted to be above average this year, although not quite as bad as last year.

"We have identified Guanacaste again as a region with a high potential of very rainy conditions," explained meteorologist Luis Alvarado with the National Meteorology Institute (IMN). "What will be seen is something similar to last year, but perhaps less exaggerated than that year, always with a high risk of storms and floods."

According to IMN's Climatic Prognostic for Costa Rica for August to October of 2011 the La Niña effect, the most intense in the last 30 years, ended in May. We're currently in a neutral phase between El Niño and La Niña, although there is a possibility that La Niña could return as it did in 2008.

In upcoming months, the threat level for storms will increase significantly due to greater activity of hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean and perhaps also the Pacific, which in the last 10 years has shown an increase in the number of events with direct or indirect impact on the Central American Pacific coast. For 2011, the prognostic also indicated a more active cyclone season for the Pacific Ocean basin compared to 2010, with direct or indirect impact to the coast.

For the North Pacific area of Costa Rica, the report predicted 35% more rainfall than normal this year between August and October.

Rain data Samara

Charlie Foerster, who collects rain data, commented that this year's data as of early August showed less days of rain but more rain than normal. Based on data from the past four years, the average rainfall in June is 42.28 centimeters, but this year he recorded 54.23 centimeters; and in July he recorded 64.11 centimeters compared to an average of 55.13. Yet, in 2010 he recorded 87.81 cm in July.

Rain Data Nosara

Bobbi Johnson has been collecting rain data since 1995, providing insight into local conditions. While acknowledging that rainfall varies from one neighborhood to another, she said she and two others compared rain data they had collected for a five-year period and the data was similar, within 3% of each other. This year at her house in the mountains above Los Arenales neighborhood, she reported 54.4 centimeters of rain in June (average is 45.65) and 50 centimeters in July (average is 32). In 2010, she recorded 96.3 centimeters in July, so, this year we've seen more rainfall than normal but not nearly as much as last year.

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